How Much Do You Actually Earn on Airbnb? Real Short-Term Rental Income by City (2026)
Published on: July 8, 2026
Quick answer: Among these four markets in 2026, Dubai and prime Bali villas have the highest earning power, Lisbon is solid, and Bangkok is the lowest. But regulation, not the nightly rate, decides viability: Lisbon reversed its restrictions in January 2026, Bali began delisting unlicensed properties from 31 March 2026, sub-30-day lets in Bangkok are illegal without a hotel licence, and Dubai's first-half-2026 figures are distorted by regional conflict. Always pull two or three data providers and check whether a property can legally operate before you budget on any revenue number.
"How much will my Airbnb make?" is the question every prospective buyer asks, and it's the one the internet answers worst. Headline figures are often cherry-picked, and importantly, different data providers measure the same market and get very different numbers because of how they count listings, seasons and "active" versus dormant properties. So this guide does two things differently. First, for each city it gives a range across multiple providers (AirROI, Airbtics, AirDNA and others) rather than a single false-precise figure. Second, it puts the regulation front and centre, because in 2026 the rules, not the nightly rate, are what decide whether a market is even viable.
Two definitions to keep straight throughout:
- ADR (Average Daily Rate): the average price per booked night.
- Occupancy: the share of available nights that were actually booked.
- Multiply the two (and adjust for available nights) and you get realised revenue, which is why a high ADR with low occupancy can earn less than a modest ADR with high occupancy.
A word on the numbers below. Ranges reflect genuine disagreement between data providers, largely driven by methodology. Aggregators that count every listing (including barely-active ones) tend to show lower average occupancy; ground-level operators managing real portfolios often report higher occupancy on well-run properties. Use the ranges to frame expectations, then verify current data for the specific building and unit type before you buy, and never budget on the optimistic end.
Lisbon: solid demand, and the rules just loosened
Lisbon is one of Europe's largest and most bookable short-term rental markets, with well over 13,000 active listings. Estimates for a typical listing cluster like this in 2026:
- ADR: roughly US$120–175 (about €110–160), depending on provider.
- Occupancy: a wide ~51% to ~80%, this is the starkest example of methodology divergence, with all-listing aggregators near the low end and portfolio-level trackers near the high end.
- Annual revenue (typical listing): broadly US$27,000–37,000, with well-optimised central units exceeding €3,000/month.
The single most important 2026 development: Lisbon reversed its short-term rental restrictions in January 2026. After earlier caps failed to demonstrably improve housing affordability, the city moved to allow short-term rentals up to roughly 10% of housing stock per parish, reopening the market to new registrations in many areas. Compliance is still the cost of entry (the large majority of listings show active registration), and the most saturated cores, Baixa, Chiado, Bairro Alto, Alfama, leave less room to differentiate than up-and-coming neighbourhoods like Campo de Ourique or Estrela. But the regulatory direction of travel in Lisbon is now toward opening rather than closing.
Verdict: Genuine year-round demand, a newly friendlier rulebook, but a competitive market where location and management quality separate winners from the average.
Dubai: high earning power, but 2026 data is distorted by regional conflict
On paper, Dubai is one of the most lucrative short-term rental markets anywhere, with strong nightly rates and no property or income tax. Steady-state estimates:
- ADR: roughly US$175–275 across providers (premium areas like the Marina, Downtown and Palm command far more).
- Occupancy: roughly ~42% to ~73% depending on methodology.
- Annual revenue (typical listing): broadly US$26,000–47,000 in normal conditions.
The critical caveat for 2026: Dubai's tourism and short-term rental market was severely disrupted by regional conflict that began in late February 2026. Leisure demand collapsed for a period; some operator data showed occupancy falling dramatically in the spring as travellers stayed away and the market temporarily shifted toward longer-stay "displacement" housing for regional residents. By mid-2026 the situation was moving toward de-escalation and recovery, but the first-half-2026 figures are an outlier, not a baseline. Any Dubai revenue projection built on early-2026 data will misrepresent the market in either direction. For a buying decision, look at pre-disruption steady-state benchmarks and watch how demand normalises before committing.
Two structural points remain true regardless: short-term rentals require a holiday-home permit from Dubai's Department of Economy and Tourism (DET), and there is no personal income tax on the earnings (though a per-night Tourism Dirham fee applies, usually passed to the guest).
Verdict: Among the highest earning potential of these four markets, but 2026 is a year to underwrite conservatively and confirm that demand has stabilised.
Bali: strong on paper, but a hard licensing deadline just reshaped the market
Bali's island-wide averages look modest until you separate studios and apartments from professionally managed villas, which is where investors actually play.
- Island-wide ADR: roughly US$90–98 (multiple providers converge here).
- Island-wide occupancy: roughly 63–66% on a typical-listing basis (all-listing aggregators show lower).
- Island-wide annual revenue: roughly US$20,000–22,000 for a typical listing.
- Professionally managed villas in prime zones (Canggu, Uluwatu, Pererenan, Seminyak) are a different tier: a two-bedroom villa can gross around US$50,000–59,000, with ADRs of US$180–260; Ubud and Sanur sit lower. Net income typically runs far below gross, often only 40–50% of gross survives costs, management and taxes.
The 2026 game-changer is regulatory. Under Indonesia's tightened tourism-accommodation rules (Permenpar No. 6/2025), from 31 March 2026 Airbnb and Booking.com began delisting properties that cannot show valid licensing (NIB plus the relevant standard certificate). Crucially, a large share of villas in popular areas like Canggu sit in zones where short-term rental is not permitted at all, residential, agricultural or conservation land, and cannot obtain the licence regardless of history. The likely effect: reduced compliant supply against steady tourist demand, which can improve economics for properly licensed, professionally managed villas while pushing non-compliant stock into long-term rental or sale.
Verdict: Real income for the compliant operator, but zoning and licensing are now the first question, before ADR, before location. Confirm a property can legally operate as a short-term rental before you buy.
Bangkok: the lowest headline earnings, and a genuine legal problem
Bangkok is a huge, cheap-to-enter market, but it carries the most significant legal risk of the four.
- ADR: roughly US$49–71 across providers.
- Occupancy: roughly ~44% to ~67% depending on methodology.
- Annual revenue (typical listing): broadly US$7,000–12,000, the lowest of these four cities.
The legal reality every buyer must understand: in Thailand, renting a residential property for stays under 30 days without a hotel licence is illegal under the Hotel Act. Penalties reach fines plus daily accruals and even criminal exposure, and critically, condominium juristic persons (building committees) can and do ban short-term rentals in their bylaws. Enforcement has intensified through 2025–2026, with authorities in Bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya running undercover operations and multiple agencies (Revenue Department, Immigration, Interior) now cross-referencing tax filings and guest reports. Foreign ownership rules add further constraints. This does not make Thai property a bad investment, but it makes sub-30-day Airbnb in Bangkok a legally fragile strategy. Many compliant investors pivot to 30-day-plus stays (outside the Hotel Act) or long-term letting.
Verdict: Low nightly rates and a real legal ceiling on the classic short-let model. Attractive for longer-stay or long-term rental; risky for pure nightly Airbnb without a hotel licence.
Side-by-side (2026, typical-listing ranges)
| City | ADR (USD) | Occupancy | Annual revenue (USD) | The 2026 headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | ~$120–175 | ~51–80% | ~$27k–37k | Rules loosened Jan 2026 (up to ~10% of stock per parish) |
| Dubai | ~$175–275 | ~42–73% | ~$26k–47k* | H1-2026 distorted by regional conflict; underwrite conservatively |
| Bali (villa) | ~$180–260 | varies | ~$50k–59k gross | 31 Mar 2026 licensing crackdown; zoning is now decisive |
| Bangkok | ~$49–71 | ~44–67% | ~$7k–12k | Sub-30-day lets illegal without hotel licence |
*Steady-state ranges; early-2026 Dubai figures are an outlier due to the regional situation.
How to read any city's rental numbers (the method)
- Pull two or three providers, not one. If they disagree by 20+ points on occupancy, that gap is the information, assume the truth sits between them and lean conservative.
- Separate gross from net. For most of these markets, 40–60% of gross disappears into platform fees, management (typically 15–25%), cleaning, utilities, furnishing amortisation, permits and taxes.
- Check regulation before revenue. In 2026, the binding constraint in Lisbon, Bali and Bangkok is legal, not financial. A property that can't legally operate has an income of zero.
- Underwrite on the typical listing, not the top 10%. Marketing brochures quote the best performers; you should budget on the median.
The bottom line
Across these four markets in 2026, the ranking on earning power (Dubai and prime Bali villas at the top, Lisbon solid, Bangkok lowest) is almost inverted by the ranking on rule risk (Bangkok most legally fragile, Bali gated by new licensing, Dubai facing a geopolitical shock, Lisbon actually loosening). The takeaway isn't a single "best" city, it's that a credible rental projection starts with three questions in this order: Can it legally operate? What does it net after costs? And is the demand real and stable right now?
Related reading
- Short-term rental investment guide
- Highest rental-yield cities for investors
- Airbnb-hostile cities and short-term rental bans
- Buying property in Istanbul as a foreigner
Compare markets on real inventory
A revenue range is only the starting point. JanusHermes brings verified listings from trusted local agencies into one place, so you can compare cities, prices, and property types side by side before you commit to a market. Browse properties on JanusHermes.
This article is for general information and is not investment, legal or tax advice. Short-term rental figures are estimates that vary by data provider and change constantly; regulations change frequently. Verify current market data and local rules for the specific property before making any decision.
A note on the numbers: where no source is named, the market figures in this article (prices, yields, costs) are indicative estimates compiled from publicly available market data and industry reporting at the time of writing. Markets move and rules change, so treat them as a starting point and verify current figures with official sources before acting on them.
