International Property Market Forecast 2026 to 2027: Where Prices Are Heading
Published on: June 26, 2026
No one can tell you what global property prices will do next year, and anyone who promises a precise number is selling something. Forecasts are frequently wrong, property is intensely local, and the macro picture can turn on a single rate decision or geopolitical shock. What you can do is read the published forecasts from the major research houses, understand the forces behind them, and think in scenarios rather than certainties.
That is what this guide does. It synthesises the 2026 outlooks from Savills, Knight Frank and Statista into a base case, an upside and a downside, and then focuses on the structural forces that will matter more than any headline figure. Treat everything here as a framework for your own decision, not a guarantee.
The macro backdrop into 2026
The single biggest change from the 2022 to 2023 period is the direction of interest rates. After the sharp hiking cycle that cooled markets worldwide, rates have been easing and normalising, and inflation has been moderating across most major economies. That shift is feeding through into transaction activity.
Savills forecasts that global real estate investment turnover will surpass $1 trillion in 2026, up around 15% on 2025 and the first time that level has been breached since 2022, with EMEA showing the strongest relative growth. The reading from the major advisors is consistent: capital values have broadly bottomed, debt is becoming useful again, and activity is recovering. That is the foundation of the base case.
The base case: a year of relative balance
For residential prices, the consensus is not a boom. Statista's framing captures it well: experts anticipate modest nominal price increases rather than sharp surges in 2026, after several volatile cycles, with bubble risk easing in some cities (Toronto, Hong Kong) and building in others (Miami, Tokyo). The word that recurs across forecasts is balance, not breakout.
The important nuance is divergence. There is no single global market, and 2026 to 2027 will be defined by markets moving at different speeds rather than in unison.
The regional read
Europe's mature markets. Spain ran hot in 2025, with prices up sharply on the year, and Portugal and Greece also posted solid growth. The base case into 2026 to 2027 is continued but cooling growth as affordability bites and policy tightens, rather than a repeat of the recent pace.
The United Kingdom. Both Knight Frank and Savills revised their UK forecasts down. Savills moved to a roughly flat-to-slightly-negative view for the near term, and Knight Frank trimmed expectations toward low single-digit growth with downward pressure noted. The widely expected pattern is two-speed: regional markets in the North and Midlands outperforming, prime London stabilising after a soft patch, and London tipped to lead the next upswing from 2027 rather than 2026.
Faster-moving markets. Turkey, Georgia and the UAE moved more quickly than Europe in 2025, driven by currency dynamics and tax policy. The base case is continued higher growth, but with higher volatility and currency risk attached, which can erode or amplify returns for a foreign buyer depending on the exchange rate.
The United States. Relative balance, with affordability and mortgage rates constraining demand, and a growing wildcard in insurance and climate exposure (more on that below).
The forces that matter more than the headline number
The annual percentage is the thing most buyers fixate on and the thing least worth fixating on. These structural forces will shape 2026 to 2027 more durably:
- The interest-rate path. Lower rates support prices and activity; any reversal does the opposite. This is the dominant swing factor.
- Climate risk and insurance. In exposed US markets, flood and wildfire premiums have climbed sharply and some properties are becoming difficult or impossible to insure affordably. Where coverage retreats, values follow. This is quietly one of the most important repricing forces of the decade.
- Demographic repricing. Aging populations and shifting household formation are reshaping demand market by market, a theme we explore in our demographic repricing analysis.
- Policy shifts. Golden-visa closures (Spain in 2025), foreign-buyer taxes, and short-term-rental crackdowns (Greece now bans Airbnb on golden-visa property) all move demand around between markets.
- AI and remote work. Continuing to reshape where people want to live and which locations hold value.
Three scenarios for 2026 to 2027
| Scenario | What drives it | Likely effect on prices |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | Rates ease gradually, inflation contained, activity recovers | Modest nominal growth, sharp divergence between markets |
| Upside | Faster rate cuts, strong investor demand returns | Stronger growth in liquid prime and recovering markets |
| Downside | Rate reversal, geopolitical shock, insurance and affordability stress | Flat-to-negative in stretched markets, faster falls in high-risk zones |
How to use a forecast
The mistake is to time a purchase on a single number. A forecast is most useful for stress-testing your own plan. Focus on the things you control and the local fundamentals you can verify: your holding period, your financing, the currency you are buying in, the depth and liquidity of the local market, and how easily you could exit. A modest base-case forecast plus a strong local fundamental beats a bullish headline in a thin, illiquid market.
For the longer structural picture, our housing bubble comparison looks at which markets carry the most correction risk going in.
Frequently asked questions
Will house prices go up in 2026?
The consensus base case is modest nominal growth globally rather than a surge, with large differences between markets. Some will rise meaningfully, others stay flat or fall. There is no single global answer.
Is 2026 a good time to buy property abroad?
That depends on the specific market, your financing and your holding period, not on the global average. Easing rates and recovering activity make the backdrop more constructive than 2023, but local fundamentals decide individual outcomes.
Which property markets will grow fastest?
Forecasts point to faster growth in markets like Turkey, Georgia and the UAE, but with more volatility and currency risk. Mature European markets are expected to grow more slowly after a strong run.
Will there be a property crash in 2026?
A broad global crash is not the base case in the major forecasts, which lean toward balance. The downside scenarios cluster around a rate reversal, a geopolitical shock, or affordability and insurance stress in already-stretched markets.
Disclaimer. This article is a synthesis of published third-party forecasts and is not a prediction, a guarantee, or investment advice. Forecasts are uncertain and frequently revised. Make decisions on your own circumstances and consult a qualified adviser. Information was believed accurate at the time of writing in 2026.
